90L Update 5/25/18

Good afternoon.

Here is the latest tropical update on 90L located in the Gulf of Mexico.

Now that the center of 90L is over water, additional development is likely. However, regardless of name or classification, the main threat from this system will be heavy rainfall and flooding.

Chance of Development within 48 hours = 90%

90L will slowly move northward towards the northeastern Gulf Coast through Sunday, but showers and storms will spread well to the east of the center and affect much of Florida. Showers and storms may begin to affect South Florida (mainly the Keys) today and spread northward into North and Central Florida throughout the day on Saturday.
The system may slow down considerably or stall early week, prolonging the rain threat and increasing the chance of widespread flooding.

Sea Surface temperatures in the Gulf are sufficient for intensification and are about 1-2 degrees above normal in the central and western Gulf and near to slightly below normal in the eastern Gulf near Florida.

Most models are predicting 90L could become a tropical depression or storm within the next 2 days. While a moderate tropical storm is currently the more likely scenario, a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane cannot be ruled out, especially if the system moves very slowly.

All of Florida has had above normal rainfall over the past 2 weeks, with well above normal rainfall observed in the Peninsula. This results in saturated grounds that will reduce the amount of time and rain needed to create flood conditions. Since soils are already saturated, any additional heavy rain (generally 3-4” in 3 hours, 5-6” in 6 hours or 6-8” in 12 hours) will cause flash flooding issues. Lower amounts, or 3-6” over a longer time period can still cause flooding of roads and low-lying areas.

Please prepare your self and your home for these conditions. ARES activation will most likely not be needed. Skywarn May be activated this weekend or earlier next week. When Skywarn Is activated the net will be on the 147.240 T123.0. Please monitor the repeater for any news or activations for this event.

Everyone stay safe and have a good weekend.

 


Karl Martin KG4HBN
Emergency Coordinator
Volusia Amateur Radio Emergency Service
kg4hbn@gmail.com
P/T 386-756-9861
volusiaares.org