2018 Update: NOAA Lowers Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction

From: James A. Judge <jjudge@volusia.org>
Sent: Thursday, August 9, 2018 12:12 PM
Subject: Fwd: Seasonal Outlook – 2018 Update: NOAA Lowers Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction


Good afternoon everyone;


NOAA today has lowered the 2018 Hurricane Season Prediction


It was;


10 – 16 Named Storms


5 – 9 Hurricanes


1 – 4 Major Hurricanes


The up-dated forecast is for;


9 – 13 Named Storms


4 – 7 Hurricanes


0-2 Major Hurricanes


Colorado also recently up-dated their forecast




14 Named Storms


6 Hurricanes


2 Major Hurricanes


To the Current Forecast of;


9 Named Storms


3 Hurricanes


1 Major Hurricane


Of course as Scott points out….It only takes 1!


Jim Judge, CEM, FPEM
Volusia County Emergency Management

3825 Tiger Bay Road, Suite # 102

Daytona Beach, FL 32124

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>> Scott Spratt – NOAA Federal <scott.spratt@noaa.gov> 8/9/2018 11:45 AM >>>

Good news, but as you well know, “it only takes one!”.



2018 Update: NOAA Lowers Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction


Key Points

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has increased the likelihood of a below normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent; up from 25 percent in May.
  • Other CPC forecast probabilities:
    • a near normal season – 30 percent
    • above normal season – 10 percent (a drop of 25 percent)
  • For the entire season, which ends November 30, NOAA predicts a total of:
    • 9-13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater)
    • 4-7 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater)
    • 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)
  • The updated prediction includes the 4 named storms that have occurred in the Atlantic Basin.
  • An average six month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, 6 of which become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
  • To produce the seasonal update, forecasters took several factors in account:
    • El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season.
    • Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average.
    • A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air, and increased stability of the atmosphere will further suppress hurricanes.
    • Finally, storm activity to date and the most recent model predictions contribute to this update.
  • Despite the lower prediction, NOAA still urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plan in place and to monitor the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts as we move into the peak of the hurricane season.



Scott M. Spratt
Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Forecast Office
421 Croton Road Melbourne, FL  32935

321.255.0212 X223 (office)